Climate scientists’ wide prediction intervals may be more likely but are perceived to be less certain

The use of interval forecasts allows climate scientists to issue predictions with high levels of certainty even for areas fraught with uncertainty, since wide intervals are objectively more likely to capture the truth than narrow intervals. However, wide intervals are also less informative about what the outcome will be than narrow intervals, implying a lack of knowledge or subjective uncertainty in the forecaster. In six experiments, we investigate how lay people perceive the (un)certainty associated with wide and narrow interval forecasts, and find that the preference for accuracy (seeing wide intervals as “objectively” certain) vs. informativeness (seeing wide intervals as indicating “subjective” uncertainty) is influenced by contextual cues (e.g., question formulation). Most importantly, we find that people more commonly and intuitively associate wide intervals with uncertainty than with certainty. Our research thus challenges the wisdom of using wide intervals to construct statements of high certainty in climate change reports

Extended Smoothed Boundary Method for Solving Partial Differential Equations with General Boundary Conditions on Complex Boundaries

In this article, we describe an approach for solving partial differential equations with general boundary conditions imposed on arbitrarily shaped boundaries. A continuous function, the domain parameter, is used to modify the original differential equations such that the equations are solved in the region where a domain parameter takes a specified value while boundary conditions are imposed on the region where the value of the domain parameter varies smoothly across a short distance. The mathematical derivations are straightforward and generically applicable to a wide variety of partial differential equations. To demonstrate the general applicability of the approach, we provide four examples herein: (1) the diffusion equation with both Neumann and Dirichlet boundary conditions; (2) the diffusion equation with both surface diffusion and reaction; (3) the mechanical equilibrium equation; and (4) the equation for phase transformation with the presence of additional boundaries. The solutions for several of these cases are validated against corresponding analytical and semi-analytical solutions. The potential of the approach is demonstrated with five applications: surface-reaction-diffusion kinetics with a complex geometry, Kirkendall-effect-induced deformation, thermal stress in a complex geometry, phase transformations affected by substrate surfaces, and a self-propelled droplet.Comment: This document is the revised version of arXiv:0912.1288v

The regulatory subunit of PKA-I remains partially structured and undergoes β-aggregation upon thermal denaturation

Background: The regulatory subunit (R) of cAMP-dependent protein kinase (PKA) is a modular flexible protein that responds with large conformational changes to the binding of the effector cAMP. Considering its highly dynamic nature, the protein is rather stable. We studied the thermal denaturation of full-length RIα and a truncated RIα(92-381) that contains the tandem cyclic nucleotide binding (CNB) domains A and B. Methodology/Principal Findings: As revealed by circular dichroism (CD) and differential scanning calorimetry, both RIα proteins contain significant residual structure in the heat-denatured state. As evidenced by CD, the predominantly α-helical spectrum at 25°C with double negative peaks at 209 and 222 nm changes to a spectrum with a single negative peak at 212-216 nm, characteristic of β-structure. A similar α→β transition occurs at higher temperature in the presence of cAMP. Thioflavin T fluorescence and atomic force microscopy studies support the notion that the structural transition is associated with cross-β-intermolecular aggregation and formation of non-fibrillar oligomers. Conclusions/Significance: Thermal denaturation of RIα leads to partial loss of native packing with exposure of aggregation-prone motifs, such as the B' helices in the phosphate-binding cassettes of both CNB domains. The topology of the β-sandwiches in these domains favors inter-molecular β-aggregation, which is suppressed in the ligand-bound states of RIα under physiological conditions. Moreover, our results reveal that the CNB domains persist as structural cores through heat-denaturation. © 2011 Dao et al

Belief in Conspiracy Theories and Susceptibility to the Conjunction Fallacy

People who believe in the paranormal have been found to be particularly susceptible to the conjunction fallacy. The present research examines whether the same is true of people who endorse conspiracy theories. Two studies examined the association between conspiracist ideation and the number of conjunction violations made in a variety of contexts (neutral, paranormal and conspiracy). Study 1 found that participants who endorsed a range of popular conspiracy theories more strongly also made more conjunction errors than participants with weaker conspiracism, regardless of the contextual framing of the conjunction. Study 2, using an independent sample and a generic measure of conspiracist ideation, replicated the finding that conspiracy belief is associated with domain-general susceptibility to the conjunction fallacy. The findings are discussed in relation to the association between conspiracism and other anomalous beliefs, the representativeness heuristic and the tendency to infer underlying causal relationships connecting ostensibly unrelated events

Reservists and veterans: Viewed from within and without

This chapter describes two important groups relative to military service – reservists and veterans. Definitions are provided regarding who is a member of each group. A summary of past and current research findings for each group is provided. The summary is organized by investigative topics or themes, which provide the current scope of the field for reservists and for veterans. Finally, approaches to the study of reservists and veterans are described, along with challenges – both substantively and methodologically – for future research studies. These serve as fertile areas for improvements and investigations in future research studies

Number preferences in lotteries

We explore people's preferences for numbers in large proprietary data sets from two different lottery games. We find that choice is far from uniform, and exhibits some familiar and some new tendencies and biases. Players favor personally meaningful and situationally available numbers, and are attracted towards numbers in the center of the choice form. Frequent players avoid winning numbers from recent draws, whereas infrequent players chase these. Combinations of numbers are formed with an eye for aesthetics, and players tend to spread their numbers relatively evenly across the possible range

The Shackles of Practice: History of psychology, research assessment and the curriculum

The history of psychology is being increasingly marginalized in British universities. In this article we argue that this marginalization has been brought about by a combination of material circumstances resulting from the marketization of the UK Higher Education sector. One consequence of this, the statutory audit known as the Research Excellence Framework, has made it increasingly difficult to undertake historical work as it has traditionally been done in UK Psychology Departments. At best such a situation challenges the ambition for historical work to have an impact on psychology. At worst it potentially renders the history of psychology irrelevant. Yet the theoretical justification for history of psychology has never been stronger. Psychology’s subject matter is neither exclusively natural nor entirely socially constructed, but lies on that “somewhat suspect borderland between physiology and philosophy” as Wilhelm Wundt put it. The discipline’s ontological claims are therefore always made from within epistemological frameworks which are themselves products of particular historical contexts. Such arguments have persuaded us that history of psychology has a fundamental role to play within the wider discipline. Yet as historians we cannot ignore the constraining social and material circumstances in which our field operates. We conclude that although the constraints of practice suggest that its prospects for influencing its parent discipline are seriously challenged, there are nevertheless opportunities for the history of psychology areas such as the undergraduate curriculum

Reservists and Veterans: Viewed from Within and Without

This is the final version. Available from Springer via the DOI in this record. This chapter describes two important groups relative to military service – reservists and veterans. Definitions are provided regarding who is a member of each group. A summary of past and current research findings for each group is provided. The summary is organized by investigative topics or themes, which provide the current scope of the field for reservists and for veterans. Finally, approaches to the study of reservists and veterans are described, along with challenges – both substantively and methodologically – for future research studies. These serve as fertile areas for improvements and investigations in future research studies